What happens after the elections in Nicaragua

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MEXICO CITY (AP) – Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega holds a significant lead in Sunday’s election results against a group of little-known challengers. Ortega’s strongest potential competitors were not on the ballot and are in jail.

The victory would give Ortega his fourth consecutive five-year term as president.

His government has become increasingly authoritarian since the start of the massive protests in April 2018. The protests have been violently suppressed by police and government agents. Authorities continue to prosecute those involved.

Ortega said the 2018 protests were a foreign-backed coup plot. Three dozen opposition leaders, including potential candidates, arrested since June have mainly been charged with treason and charged with working to overthrow the government. Analysts see little chance that Ortega will relax in his next term.

WHAT WAS THE INTERNATIONAL REACTION TO THE ELECTIONS?

The United States and the European Union called the election a farce. Other countries in the region, including Costa Rica and Panama, have also criticized the electoral process.

World human rights organization Amnesty International has called Ortega’s apparent re-election “frightening”.

“Once again, the Nicaraguan people find themselves in a situation where expressing criticism of the government puts them in grave danger,” said Erika Guevara-Rosas, Director of the Americas at Amnesty International. “Over the past few years we have witnessed firsthand the plot of a horror thriller unfolding in the country, where deadly police repression, wrongful imprisonment, mistreatment, harassment and criminalization human rights defenders and journalists are common practice, all endorsed by a judiciary without independence and a National Assembly that exists only to endorse Daniel Ortega’s repressive agenda.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday criticized the United States for refusing to recognize the validity of Nicaragua’s election and urged others to do the same. “We consider this unacceptable and strongly condemn such a policy,” Lavrov said,

HOW WILL OTHER NATIONS RESPOND?

The European Union and the US government have imposed previous sanctions against Ortega and his entourage which they accuse of undemocratic actions. So far, these have had little effect.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said on Monday that the EU had so far tried to avoid “measures that could potentially exacerbate the hardships of the Nicaraguan people” as a whole. “With this in mind, we will look at all the instruments at our disposal to take further action, including those that might go beyond individual restrictions. “

Some have suggested putting pressure on credit institutions to restrict Ortega government funding. And last week, the US Congress passed a measure requiring the United States to increase sanctions against members of that government and consider whether Nicaragua should continue to participate in the Central American Free Trade Agreement.

But many note that the sanctions have not forced change in countries like Cuba and Venezuela.

WHAT HAPPENS IN NICARAGUA?

Oscar René Vargas, a Nicaraguan political analyst, said Nicaraguans can only expect more repression from the victorious Ortega, saying the president “has the mentality of power or of death.” Vargas added: “He will not leave power, because leaving power is his death. “

Jennie Lincoln, senior advisor to The Carter Center, an institution that helped validate the fairness of Ortega’s 2006 election, but found “significant loopholes” when re-elected five years later, did also saw little reason to be optimistic.

“There is no light at the end of the tunnel right now,” she said. “Election day will come and go, and the situation of those imprisoned is not going to change, the position of the opposition and the heavy, heavy footprint on them is not likely to change.”

Nearly three dozen opposition leaders were jailed in the months leading up to the election and more were arrested across the country the night before voting began. Other targets of government persecution, such as writer Sergio Ramírez, have been forced into exile.

A senior US State Department official, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity, said the Ortega government attempted to use prisoners as bargaining chips to ease restrictions or criticism of his government.

“It is difficult to envision trading the release of a group of people for silence or somehow tolerance of the repression of millions of people,” the official said. “But that is indeed what they seem to be trying to achieve.”

The official added that dropping sanctions in exchange for the release of prisoners “is simply not a viable game plan.”

WHAT IS THERE FOR THE OPPOSITION?

The Nicaraguan opposition was already divided before the government began arresting its leaders in June. Ortega has consistently reduced the area in which he can maneuver. Public protests have been mostly banned by police, and leaders who have not been arrested have either fled the country or live in fear of being next.

Edgar Parrales, a former Nicaraguan diplomat, said Ortega’s ideal would be a one-party political system like Cuba’s.

“The real opposition is partly in exile, partly imprisoned and partly hidden,” Parrales said. “This is the real opposition and the one that fights and will continue to fight.”

He expressed the hope that they could overcome past divisions: “It seems that they have understood that the need to unite is urgent.”

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AP journalist Alexis Triboulard contributed to this report.

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