Pork recovery in China will erode export prospects in 2022


The ongoing recovery of the Chinese pork industry is expected to be the main driver of growth in global animal protein markets in 2022, but this recovery will limit export opportunities for UK pork producers.

According to the latest report from Rabobank Global Animal Protein Outlook, pork prices are expected to remain under pressure for much of 2022, largely because pork exports from the UK and Europe are expected to decline due to lower shipments to China.

Despite an expected slight drop in production levels in the UK and the EU, a larger increase in supply to the world market will push down overall pork prices globally, according to the bank.

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Justin Sherrard, Rabobank Global Animal Protein Strategist and author of the report, said: “For 2022, we expect EU27 pork exports to decline by around 10% year-on-year. as China’s import demand slows down further.

British pork exports to Europe are also expected to fall, as the EU27 remains well supplied with pork and additional transaction costs between the EU27 and the UK are likely to persist and hamper trade.

Poultry and beef outlook

Elsewhere, Rabobank predicts the poultry market will recover from a mixed year in 2021.

The bank forecasts global production growth of around 2%, ranging from 1% to 5% in major markets in 2022, as demand remains strong. In the UK, growth is expected to be 1.5%, he predicts, but only if some of the supply chain issues can be addressed by the government.

Poultry exports will continue to decline due to the increasing focus of UK producers on domestic sales.

In the beef sector, the bank believes there will be a continued resumption of trade between the UK and the EU, although it warns that increased administrative burdens are likely to continue to have an effect on the beef trade.

At the consumer level, Rabobank expects demand for beef to remain strong.



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