find a new boss – POLITICO

NATO allies are scouring their ranks in search of a successor to Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

Stoltenberg, a former prime minister of Norway, has held the highest civilian post since October 2014. The Allies extended his contract until September 2022, leaving just over a year to install a replacement. At headquarters, formal talks have just started, and Stoltenberg’s successor is expected to be presented at a NATO leaders’ summit in Madrid in late spring or early next summer.

But speculation in Brussels and other Allied capitals is already rampant, with some officials, diplomats and analysts claiming that after 72 years, it is high time for the alliance to appoint its first wife to the highest civilian post. Others say that given the ongoing confrontation with Russia, the selection of an Eastern European would send an important signal to Moscow.

Put these two imperatives together and three names quickly rise to the top of the list of potential candidates: former presidents Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović of Croatia and Dalia Grybauskaitė of Lithuania; and the current Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid.

Grabar-Kitarović, who was Croatia’s first woman president from 2015 to 2020, has the advantage of having previously worked at NATO Headquarters, as Deputy Secretary General for Public Diplomacy from 2011 to 2014. She also smashed a glass ceiling in this post. .

Critics say Grabar-Kitarović, who built her political career as a center-right conservative, tarnished by favoring the far right in a failed 2019 presidential re-election campaign.

She moved to the right under pressure from a populist challenger, which led to accusations that she had engaged in a ‘dog whistle’ policy, only to lose to the former center prime minister. -left, Zoran Milanović.

But Grabar-Kitarović has one of the most impressive CVs among potential future NATO leaders, having served as both Minister for Europe and Minister for Foreign Affairs of Croatia. She played an important role in the country’s successful applications for EU and NATO membership. She also served as the country’s ambassador to the United States from 2008 to 2011, which gave her a strong relationship in Washington, which will have a crucial say in NATO’s decision.

As a fellow of the Sine Institute of Policy and Politics at the American University this spring, Grabar-Kitarović led a seminar on the future of NATO that may well serve as an audition for the top post, in which she highlighted how she had spent time on the ground in Afghanistan. during his tenure as Deputy Secretary General.

“I loved my job in NATO… and the experience and atmosphere of working together,” she said at the start of the conference, which also included former NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, a former Dutch foreign minister, who served at the Alliance Work Summit from 2004 to 2009.

De Hoop Scheffer was followed to the post by former Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who predated Stoltenberg, and several NATO insiders said it was hard to imagine NATO allies opting for someone who had not been head of state or government in the same way.

This preference for a former national leader has led to recent speculation about former British Prime Minister Theresa May as a potential candidate. Mark Sedwill, who served as Cabinet Secretary and National Security Advisor under May and briefly under Prime Minister Boris Johnson, has also been named as a potential UK candidate for NATO.

A former influential ambassador to NATO said Britain was generally expected to press hard for the post of secretary general in order to demonstrate its continued influence in Europe after Brexit.

But diplomats stressed that qualifications will be seen as much more important than nationality, with a special premium given to leadership, management and communication skills. That could rule out May, whose management and communication skills during the Brexit process have been widely criticized in her country. And Sedwill has never been Foreign Minister or Minister of Defense – two positions considered a minimum requirement for any NATO chief.

Key Quartet

The United States, Germany, France and the United Kingdom have traditionally been viewed as the most influential allies in the selection process for the Secretary General.

But with the EU countries forming an overwhelming majority of NATO allies – 21 of the 30 members – and several others counted as candidates for EU membership, Britain after Brexit may have a hard time. hard to rally support for such an important role.

And some EU countries, notably Italy, believe they are vying for the top NATO post. Federica Mogherini, former Italian foreign minister and former EU foreign policy chief, had previously expressed interest, but diplomats said she would not have Washington’s backing, and that Enrico Letta, who served as Italian Prime Minister from April 2013 to February 2014, was a more viable Italian candidate.

“The UK wants to establish a solid foothold in Brussels,” said a former senior NATO official. “The Italians will say it’s their turn, they always say it. And so are the Orientals.

Other Western European officials potentially in the mix include Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who is now working on forming a new government coalition, and Belgian Foreign Minister Sophie Wilmès, who was previously Prime Minister by interim.

Some NATO observers have said that choosing a secretary general from the Baltic states, especially Grybauskaite from Lithuania, could be seen as too hostile towards Moscow, at a time when US President Joe Biden is trying to stabilize relations between Russia and the West.

The former senior NATO official said the competition for the post of Secretary General could only be considered in the context of a wider range of senior NATO positions that will be up for grabs, a crucial issue being how many of these positions Americans will claim for themselves.

Sedwill, for example, might be more likely as deputy secretary-general – which would put the UK in the limelight without having to win a popularity contest.

Other factors in the decision are whether the home country of a candidate for secretary general meets NATO’s goal of spending 2% of GDP on defense – a symbolic but important marker that could increase the chances of Kaljulaid, the current President of Estonia.

Kaljulaid recently launched an unsuccessful campaign to become Secretary-General of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, a position that would appear to match his resume much better. Before becoming President in October 2016, she was Estonia’s representative at the EU Court of Auditors for 12 years.

Romania is another NATO ally reaching the 2% threshold, potentially giving President Klaus Iohannis a shot at the post of secretary general, although Romania can be seen as a little too hawkish towards Russia.

Grabar-Kitarović, on the other hand, questioned being too comfortable with Russian President Vladimir Putin during the 2018 World Cup, when – ready in a red and white checkered team shirt – she was a staunch supporter of the Croatian team as they advanced to the final before losing to France at the Luzhniki stadium in Moscow.

France will not choose the secretary general but will exercise a de facto veto, NATO insiders have said, effectively killing any chance Turkey might have of claiming a very high post. French President Emmanuel Macron recently lobbied for NATO to demonstrate greater political cohesion, a goal Stoltenberg endorsed as part of a recent ‘reflection’ process on the future of the alliance. .

During his seminar for American University, Grabar-Kitarović showed a knack for echoing Stoltenberg’s pro-NATO platitudes, which earned him a reputation for disciplined communication, even amid the turmoil caused by the former US President Donald Trump.

“It is very important to note that NATO is not just a military alliance, it is a political alliance as well as an alliance of values,” Grabar-Kitarović told his audience. “There is a shared democratic identity in NATO.